July 30, 2010 --
By Bill Watkins, Oregon Economic Forecast
California Lutheran University
Full Report here
Oregon is in for at least a couple of more years of economic challenge, and there is little that can be done in the short run. The United States economy will be very soft, and Oregon has the assets and liabilities it has. To paraphrase a former Secretary of Defense, you fight the recession with the economy you have. Unfortunately, Oregon’s economy, while certainly diversified from, say, 20 years ago, is still very tied to building materials and California’s economy. Given our forecast of real estate prices and construction, the building materials sector will likely recover far more slowly than in past recessions.
California’s economy is significantly worse than that of the United State economy, due in part to its massive home-price bubble, a result of over-investment in housing. California is also moving forward with public policies and regulations that are increasingly motivated by non-economic factors, some of which are economically costly and put the state at a competitive disadvantage.
Read the full article and discuss it »