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Oregon recession: 2001 vs. 2008

July 31, 2010 --

Business Employment Dynamics: Third Quarter, 2009
by Brooke Jackson-Winegardner
Oregon Employment Department

From June to September 2009, firms in Oregon that were newly opening or expanding added about 86,170 jobs. During the same time, firms that were cutting jobs or closing altogether shed about 93,230 jobs. The result was a net loss of 7,060 jobs over the quarter.

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California provides economic curse, blessing to Oregon

July 30, 2010 --

By Bill Watkins, Oregon Economic Forecast
California Lutheran University
Full Report here

Oregon is in for at least a couple of more years of economic challenge, and there is little that can be done in the short run. The United States economy will be very soft, and Oregon has the assets and liabilities it has. To paraphrase a former Secretary of Defense, you fight the recession with the economy you have. Unfortunately, Oregon’s economy, while certainly diversified from, say, 20 years ago, is still very tied to building materials and California’s economy. Given our forecast of real estate prices and construction, the building materials sector will likely recover far more slowly than in past recessions.

California’s economy is significantly worse than that of the United State economy, due in part to its massive home-price bubble, a result of over-investment in housing. California is also moving forward with public policies and regulations that are increasingly motivated by non-economic factors, some of which are economically costly and put the state at a competitive disadvantage.

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Senator pushes 0% capital gains for start-ups

July 29, 2010 --

Senator Baucus (D-Mont.) Speaks in Favor of 0% Capital Gains Tax Rate for Startups
By Joseph Wallin,
Davis, Wright, Tremaine LLP
NW law firm

[T]he United States Senate will resume consideration of the Small Business Jobs and Credit Act of 2010. The bill will exempt from capital gains tax gains on qualified small business stock acquired after March 15, 2010, and before January 1, 2012, and held for more than 5 years. The House has already passed this tax incentive.

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More Stimulus or Austerity?

July 28, 2010 --

By Patrick Emerson
Oregon Economics Blog

My little, but highly scientific, poll closed last night and 80% of you indicated that you favor more stimulus over austerity.  There has been a lot of debate in policy circles lately about what the appropriate policy should be right now, but it appears that the more stimulus side has the weight of evidence on their side at the moment.

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SB 498: Oregon Total Tax Retroactivity

July 27, 2010 --

By Valerie H. Sasaki
Miller Nash LLP
,
Oregon and Washington Law Firm

One of the hallmarks of good tax policy is predictability in administration. Practically speaking, a taxpayer should be able to rely on the laws in effect when it files its tax return. The Internal Revenue Code adopts this approach in IRC § 7805(b), which prohibits any “temporary, proposed, or final regulation relating to the internal revenue laws [from applying] to a taxable period ending before the earliest of the following dates: (A) the date on which such regulation is filed with the Federal Register. (B) In the case of any final regulation, the date on which any proposed or temporary regulation to which such final regulation relates was filed with the Federal Register. (C) The date on which any notice substantially describing the expected contents of any temporary, proposed, or final regulation is issued to the public.” There are exceptions for situations in which the IRS is attempting to “prevent abuse” or “retroactively correct a procedural defect in the issuance of any prior regulation.”

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End of Census Jobs Swells Oregon Job Loss

July 26, 2010 --

End of Temporary Census Jobs Swells Oregon Job Loss
By Oregon Employment Department

Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 10.5 percent in June, essentially unchanged from 10.6 percent in May. The rate has been between 10.5 and 10.7 percent for the most recent eight months. Oregon’s unemployment rate was 11.6 percent in June 2009, which tied May 2009 as Oregon’s highest unemployment rate since the early 1980s. The U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 9.5 percent in June from 9.7 percent in May.

The number of unemployed Oregonians dropped substantially, by more than 25,000, over the last 12 months. In June, 203,884 Oregonians were unemployed, compared with 229,471 unemployed in June 2009.

Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment dropped by 3,600 in June, following a gain of 2,600 (as revised) in May.

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New $600 rule trips up small business and IRS

July 25, 2010 --

In the new Health Care law is a new rule that requires a 1099 form for everyone a business pay more than $600 in a given year. The video below explains on the new rule’s difficult implementation.

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Why the New Financial Reform Bill is Bad for Business

July 24, 2010 --

U.S. Chamber Says Congress ‘Failed’ in Its Attempt to Reform Financial System
Vows to Use Regulatory Process To Prevent Strangulation of Credit
By U.S. Chamber of Commerce

WASHINGTON, D.C.—Following today’s Senate vote for final passage of financial reform legislation, U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Thomas J. Donohue said Congress had “failed” in its attempt to modernize a broken system, highlighting the massive new regulations and bureaucracies that may choke off credit to America’s job creators.   “Congress had a historic opportunity to fix a broken system and it failed,” Donohue said. “For years – long before the markets collapsed – the Chamber has called for modernizing our capital markets. Instead of fixing the system, Washington just piled bureaucracies and massive new regulations onto a broken system. This will only exacerbate uncertainty and jeopardize job creation.”

A recent Chamber study pointed out that this financial reform bill creates 533 required regulatory rulemakings, 60 studies, and 93 reports. By contrast, the Sarbanes-Oxley legislation passed in 2002 only had 16 rulemakings and six studies.

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Microsoft losing browser war to four rising rivals

July 23, 2010 --

Oregon News Note:

NetApplications reports that Microsoft is losing key ground in the browser war as it watches it key browser, Explorer, drop 14% in market share.   At the same time Firefox share grew 5%, Google’s Chrome grew 6%, Apple’s Safari grew 2% and Opera by 1%.   These are not good numbers for Microsoft.  Security and new options have driven many users to leave Explorer for the new rising browsers.

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Recovery report card. White House misses mark

July 22, 2010 --

By Dr. Eric Fuits,
EconInternational

In 2009, the administration’s economists promoted stimulus spending by putting out some bold projections of the impacts of the stimulus on U.S.

Unemployment. For example, the attached chart shows that the administration’s economists expected that, by now, the stimulus would have reduced unemployment to 7.3 percent.  Instead, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that employment is now 9.5 percent.  While the unemployment rate is lower than last month, this is because so many people have given up looking for work.  Those people are out of the labor force and do not count toward the most widely used unemployment number.

Read the full article and discuss it »
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