International Economic Forecast 2012-2013

by Bill Conerly
Conerly Consulting, Businomics

I’ve described my international economic forecast over on my Forbes site, comparing my views to the recent International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, April 2012. For a quick preview, consider the risks to the global economic outlook:

International Forecast

The height of the line shows the probability. “Muddle through” is the most likely scenario. Moving left, there’s the risk of a war with Iran, and then an even greater risk that Europe flames out in a financial crisis. More details at

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