I’ve described my international economic forecast  over on my Forbes site, comparing my views to the recent International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, April 2012. For a quick preview, consider the risks to the global economic outlook:
The height of the line shows the probability. “Muddle through” is the most likely scenario. Moving left, there’s the risk of a war with Iran, and then an even greater risk that Europe flames out in a financial crisis. More details at Forbes.com.