Primary Results: What it means for business

Results of May Primary Election Are a Mixed Bag
By Oregon Business & Industry,

Strong turnout: As is often the case, the results of this year’s primary election are a mixed bag. At a high level, we saw a significant increase in voter turnout, with higher participation rates than any of the three preceding primary midterms. Experts attribute the strong turnout to the gas tax referendum, which energized anti-tax Republican voters and provided non-affiliated voters (whose primary ballots normally contain few contests because Oregon uses a closed primary system) a rare opportunity to vote on a high-profile contest in a May election.

Highlights: Two positive results deserve to be mentioned. By a 62%-38% margin, Lane County voters rejected Measure 20-373, a countywide ballot measure self-titled “The Watershed Bill of Rights.” The measure would have granted new rights to waterways and connected ecosystems and threatened punitive legal consequences for violations of those rights, which were extremely broad and poorly defined. In Lake Oswego, meanwhile, moderate Democrat Rep. Daniel Nguyen easily dispatched a more progressive challenger backed by the Oregon Trial Lawyers Association and Oregon Education Association.

Moderates defeated: The results of two Washington County primary elections promise to move the Legislature in a less moderate direction. First, Sen. Janeen Sollman, D-Hillsboro, lost narrowly to a democratic socialist candidate, Myrna Munoz. In the race for an open Beaverton House seat, meanwhile, democratic socialist Tammy Carpenter narrowly defeated Beaverton City Councilor Ashley Hartmeier-Prigg. Much of the business community, including the OBI PAC, endorsed the comparatively moderate Sollman and Hartmeier-Prigg.

Looking to November: Initiative Petition 28, the so-called People for the Elimination of Animal Cruelty Exemptions (PEACE) Act, was not on the May ballot but may qualify for the November ballot. The measure would criminalize any “harm” to an animal, defined as any nonhuman mammal, bird, reptile, amphibian or fish. The measure effectively would render illegal everything from ranching and animal husbandry to recreational fishing. Several recent news stories have led some to believe that IP 28 has qualified to for the November election, but that is not the case. The confusion stems from the fact that petitioners claim to have collected 120,935 signatures, which is more than the 117,173 needed to qualify. However, those signatures will be subjected to a verification process, and many submitted signatures will be deemed invalid. The average validity rate for signatures (dating back to 2020) is 79.9%. Assuming that same validity rate, IP 28 petitioners likely will need to submit 146,650 signatures by the July deadline. To do so would require the petitioners to collect more signatures over the course of the next month than they have during similar time periods to date. In short, while IP 28 is the closest initiative to qualifying, its qualification is not guaranteed.