Declining Import Cargo Volume to Continue in 2026

National Retail Federation,
Press Release,

Amid the impact from tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty, year-over-year declines in import cargo volume seen at the nation’s major container ports in recent months are expected to continue in 2026, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Regardless of what develops, retailers will adjust their supply chains accordingly and strive to ensure that consumers have affordable options when they shop.”

The administration has recently reduced tariffs on some food products, but the future of other tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act rests with a challenge currently being considered by the Supreme Court. Even if the tariffs are struck down, the administration is likely to seek to reinstate them under other trade authorities.

The effect of rising tariffs on global trade is unlikely to end soon, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.

“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year,” Hackett said. “Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe.”