NFIB optimism index update

By Oregon National Federation of Independent Business,

Expectations of better sales and business conditions among the nation’s small business owners boosted NFIB’s latest Small Business Optimism Index to 98.8, slightly above the 51-year average of 98.

Also noteworthy in the latest index, released today – a new issue has reclaimed the title of top concern for small business owners. For the first time since December 2020, taxes were ranked as the most important problem, beating out more recent top challenges such as unfilled job openings and inflation.

“It’s great to see the optimism index back up above the all-time average, but we shouldn’t be surprised that taxes are front and center in the minds of small business owners right now,” said Anthony Smith, state director for NFIB in Oregon.

“Nationally, all eyes are on Congress. Small business owners are watching closely to find out whether federal lawmakers will make the 20% Small Business Tax Deduction permanent or raise taxes on millions of small businesses across the country. Likewise, here in Oregon, we’re entering the final weeks of the 2025 legislative session, when state lawmakers are putting the final touches on the budget, which is required to balance. With so many competing priorities, will legislators live within their means or make a last-ditch effort to raise taxes?”

NFIB’s Index is the gold standard measurement of America’s small business economy. Used by the Federal Reserve, Congressional leaders, administration officials, and state legislatures across the nation, it’s regarded as the bellwether on the health and welfare of the Main Street. The Optimism Index (aka Small Business Economic Trends report) is a national snapshot of NFIB-member, small-business owners not broken down by state. The typical NFIB member employs between one and nine people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year.

From NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg

“Although optimism recovered slightly in May, uncertainty is still high among small business owners. While the economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty are resolved, owners reported more positive expectations on business conditions and sales growth.”

Highlights from Today’s Optimism Index

• A net 1% (seasonally adjusted) of owners viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in May, up 7 points from April and the highest reading since August 2022. This was the largest monthly increase in the survey’s history.
• The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions rose 10 points from April to a net 25% (seasonally adjusted).
• The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 11 points from April to a net 10% (seasonally adjusted). This component contributed the most to the Optimism Index’s improvement.
• The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as the single most important problem for business fell three points from April to 16%.

Keep up with the latest Oregon small business news at www.nfib.com or on X at @NFIB_OR

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