Oregon Comment on Record Poll Findings

Is the small business economy finally turning around?
By NFIB

SALEM, Ore., Dec. 10, 2024— The latest NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, released today, rose by eight points in November to 101.7, after 34 months of remaining below the 50-year average of 98. This is the highest reading since June 2021. Remarkably, of the 10 components in the index, nine increased, none decreased, and one remained unchanged.

“Optimism is up and uncertainty is down,” said Anthony Smith, state director for NFIB in Oregon. “This is heartening news after 34 straight months of stagnant small business survey data results. Now we need national policymakers to deliver some actual results, like making the 20% Small Business Deduction permanent and repealing the onerous beneficial ownership information (BOI) provisions of the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA).

“We also need Oregon’s state lawmakers to show restraint when tempted to have an unnecessarily adversarial posture toward the new federal administration, or we may find business in Oregon stalling while the rest of the nation’s economy shifts into high gear.”

From NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg

“The election results signal a major shift in economic policy, leading to a surge in optimism among small business owners. Main Street also became more certain about future business conditions following the election, breaking a nearly three-year streak of record high uncertainty. Owners are particularly hopeful for tax and regulation policies that favor strong economic growth as well as relief from inflationary pressures. In addition, small business owners are eager to expand their operations.”

Key Findings from Today’s Report Include:

• The net percent of owners expecting the economy to improve rose 41 points from October to a net 36%, the highest since June 2020. This component had the greatest impact on the overall increase in the Optimism Index.
• The net percent of small business owners believing it is a good time to expand their business rose eight points to a net 14%. This is the highest reading since June 2021.
• The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 18 points to a net 14% (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading since February 2020.

NFIB’s monthly Small Business Optimism Index is the gold standard measurement of America’s small business economy. Used by the Federal Reserve, Congressional leaders, administration officials, and state legislatures across the nation, it’s regarded as the bellwether on the health and welfare of the Main Street enterprises that employ half of all workers, generate more net new jobs than large corporations, and gave most of us the first start in our working life. The Small Business Optimism Index is a national snapshot of NFIB-member, small-business owners not broken down by state. The typical NFIB member employs between one and nine people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year.

Keep up with the latest Oregon small-business news at www.nfib.com/OR. Follow us on X at @NFIB_OR.

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For 80 years, NFIB has been advocating on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners, both in Washington, D.C., and in all 50 state capitals. NFIB is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven association. Since our founding in 1943, NFIB has been exclusively dedicated to small and independent businesses and remains so today. For more information, please visit nfib.com.

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