Oregon Comment on NFIB’s Latest Optimism Index

By Oregon NFIB,

SALEM, Ore., Nov. 12, 2024—The release of NFIB’s monthly Small Business Economic Trends report, also known as the Optimism Index, showed minor improvement in some categories but within a backdrop of a record 51-year high in uncertainty.

“With the election over, small business owners will begin to feel less uncertain about future business conditions,” said Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB’s chief economist. “Although optimism is on the rise on Main Street, small business owners are still facing unprecedented economic adversity. Low sales, unfilled jobs openings, and ongoing inflationary pressures continue to challenge our Main Streets, but owners remain hopeful as they head toward the holiday season.”

Added Anthony Smith, state director for NFIB Oregon, “Uncertainty, in general, may have been at an all-time high in the days and weeks leading up to the 2024 General Election, but if there’s one bright spot worth noting for Oregon, it’s the way Oregonians came together in record numbers to oppose Ballot Measure 118. With tax increases on the line, there was no uncertainty about it – voters in Oregon have had enough of bad policies that raise the cost of living in our state. Not even the allure of ‘free money from the government’ could change that.”

Key Findings from the Report Include:

• A net negative 20% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down three points from September and the lowest reading since July 2020.
• Seasonally adjusted, a net 31% reported raising compensation, down one point from September. The last time it was this low was April 2021.
• The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose five points to a net negative 4% (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading of this year.
• A net 5% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, down seven points from September and the lowest reading since January 2022.
• Thirty-five percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up one point from September.
• Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input and labor costs), unchanged from September and remaining the top issue.

NFIB’s monthly (SBET) report is the gold standard measurement of America’s small business economy. Used by the Federal Reserve, Congressional leaders, administration officials, and state legislatures across the nation, it’s regarded as the bellwether on the health and welfare of the Main Street enterprises that employ half of all workers, generate more net new jobs than large corporations, and gave most of us the first start in our working life. The SBET (aka the Optimism Index) is a national snapshot of NFIB-member, small-business owners not broken down by state. More about the Uncertainty Index can be read here. The typical NFIB member employs between one and nine people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year.

Keep up with the latest Oregon small-business news at www.nfib.com/OR. Follow us on X at @NFIB_OR.

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For 80 years, NFIB has been advocating on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners, both in Washington, D.C., and in all 50 state capitals. NFIB is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven association. Since our founding in 1943, NFIB has been exclusively dedicated to small and independent businesses and remains so today. For more information, please visit nfib.com.

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