By Josh Lehner,
Office of Economic Analysis
Our office has fielded a lot of requests in recent weeks for our thoughts on the economic outlook and what it means for the state budget. After all, that is our job. We have been happy to discuss some things in the big picture perspective, just like we do here on the blog. However we have not publicly discussed any specifics regarding the outlook nor how it translates into state revenues and impacts the budget. These types of requests we have pushed off until after May 20th when we will release the next economic and revenue forecast. This is in part because the forecast is still being developed. Our office has not finalized anything yet and are meeting with our advisors again this week and next. Once we do finalize the outlook, we first let policymakers know and then discuss and upload the details behind it.
With all of that said, last Friday, I had the opportunity to tag team a presentation with Damon Runberg, regional economist for the Oregon Employment Department, for the Bend Chamber of Commerce. Damon has been digging into the characteristics of those filing for unemployment insurance in recent weeks — read his latest article, download the data, or watch his presentation below. I followed his presentation with some thoughts on the nature of the economic shock, the likely shape of the recovery, how federal policies are trying to keep household and firms’ heads above water, and just a couple thoughts on state revenues and the size of current budgetary reserves.
A quick recap and timeline of the video is as follows. Katy Brooks, the Bend Chamber’s CEO starts off with some introductory comments, Damon’s presentation starts at the 4:14 mark and goes through until I come in at 22:28. I go until just past the 39 minute mark, after which time Katy moderates a Q&A portion for the last 20 minutes.
I’m biased, but I thought overall it was a good discussion with lots of information on the current state of the economy, including lots of details on the new unemployment insurance programs and rules, plus some broader thoughts on the outlook. I’d like to thank the Bend Chamber and Damon for inviting me.
Click here to download a copy of my slides: Bend Chamber Lehner Wide 042420
Disclaimer: Articles featured on Oregon Report are the creation, responsibility and opinion of the authoring individual or organization which is featured at the top of every article.