This is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for August 2019.
The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity rose to 0.26 in June, up from an downwardly-revised -0.07 in May. Highlights of this month’s report include:
– The moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, fell to 0.48, still above average (“zero” indicates average growth over the 1990-present period).
– The moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, fell to 0.25, still above average (“zero” indicates average growth over the 1990-present period). The household sector made the only substantial contribution, bolstered by a low unemployment rate and low initial unemployment claims as well as solid consumer sentiment.
– The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators edged up in June for the third consecutive month of gains (after revisions to the data).
– Lower levels of jobless claims plus higher employment services payrolls (large temporary help firms) foreshadow continuing overall job growth. Core manufacturing orders for capital goods again edged higher and have yet to show the declines typically associated with very weak economic conditions.
– The interest rate spread between 10-year treasury bonds and the Federal Funds rate fell to -0.31; in the past such a yield curve inversion has been helpful in predicting recessions. In response to growing risks to the economic outlook, the Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates.
The UO Index still is not showing the depth and breadth of weakness across indicators that would signal an impending recession. At this point, the combination of measures in this report suggests continued economic expansion at a slower pace of growth compared to last year.
Link to full report (with lots of charts!) here.