20% chance of recession

chart-fruits-rcnjn16By Dr. Eric Fruits,
Oregon Economist
On Demand Newsletter

Slow growth this year, chance of recession next year

• Latest data show sluggish growth through 2016, with increasing chance of recession by mid-2017. This is in line with a Wall Street Journal survey of economists.
• Consumer spending is pulling the economy along. Boost in corporate profits is partially offset by stagnant small business in-comes.
• Signs point to output growth for the rest of the year—slow growth—but growth nonetheless.
• OECD downgrades U.S. growth to 1.8 percent for the year.
• Recession may hit the middle of 2017 state legislative sessions.

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