Oregon economy after the surge

chart-duy-feb16University of Oregon Economic Indexes
By Tim Duy
Oregon Economic Forum
University of  Oregon

Oregon Economic Indicators:

The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity retreated in December from a surge the previous month, but continues to signal above-average growth for state. Highlights of the report include:

– The manufacturing sector made a modest positive contribution despite weak national indicators; Oregon manufacturing indicators of employment and hours worked supported the sector. The construction sector made a near neutral contribution. New permits for residential housing are near average, but are still weaker than typically associated with an expansion in Oregon.

– Components of the household sector were again mostly positive and provided a substantial boost to the overall measure. Note that the stock index component will reflect substantial declines in equity prices in January’s report.

– The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators edged up 0.1% in December. Initial unemployment claims ticked up to the highest level since September, but remain in a range consistent with solid job growth. Employment services payrolls (largely temporary help workers) rose.

Core manufacturing orders (a national indicator) fell sharply; manufacturing activity is being negatively impacted by the decline in oil drilling as well as the rise in the value of the dollar (which makes US goods relatively more expensive for foreign buyers).

These two indicators suggest ongoing growth in Oregon at an above average pace of activity. The ongoing US economic expansion provides sufficient support to sustain Oregon’s economy for the foreseeable future.

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