Oregon hints at weaker job report

University of Oregon Regional Economic Indexes
By Tim Duy
Oregon Economic Forum
University of  Oregon

Oregon Economic Indicators:

The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity fell in September while the University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators rose. Highlights of the report include:

– The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity fell in September while the three-month moving average, which smooths month-to-month volatility in the measure, rose to 0.06 on the back of a substantial upward revision to the August data.
– Weaker employment data in comparison with earlier this year continues to weigh on the measure, although it is important to recognize that employment data can be volatile and subject to large revisions. For example, the “other services employment” component made a significant negative contribution that represents a reversal from exceptionally strong growth earlier this year. Final revisions may smooth this volatility.
Note that the ongoing positive contribution from initial unemployment claims points to solid job growth in the months ahead while the labor force gains are consistent with economic activity turning sufficiently stronger to draw people back into the job market.
– The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators rose a slight 0.1% in September while the August number was revised upward. Overall, there was little movement in the indicators, which is not uncommon as a recovery matures and the indicators reach levels consistent with stable growth.
– The two indicators suggest continued growth in Oregon at an average to somewhat above average pace of activity. Further gains are likely as the national economy will continue its general upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.

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