May 23, 2013
Economy Decent But Not Great: The Businomics Newsletter
by Bill Conerly, Oregon economist
Conerly Consulting, Businomics
The U.S has had the upper hand against other countries for the past couple of years concerning import-export trend, as a weakened U.S dollar helped exports. Now, though, Japan and Europe are stepping up their easy money interventions, cheapening their currencies. This maybe flattens the export-import trend for the U.S. But maybe U.S housing picks up the slack, if the Federal Reserve doesn’t remove some of its easy money interventions. Obamacare might be a drag too, because of the various disincentives to hire full-time employees. Reforming ObamaCare could help the economy.
One thing not shown here is the recent sharp decline in the federal government spending-revenue deficit. Continued down trend in deficit might help lift the sequester. Also, at the local government level, some local governments are slowing employment cuts. Maybe the government sector stops being a drag in a year or two. I think it is worth the sacrifice in current economy to bring the government share of the economy back to a more normal level.
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