The Oregon Biz Report - Business News from Oregon

Read about accutane journal moderate acne here

Economic Forecast: How Long Until We’re Back to Normal?

September 7, 2011

By Bill Conerly,
Conerly Consulting
, Businomics

This is an ugly calculation. My recently updated economic forecast through 2013 shows a wide gap between actual output and potential output. That is roughly equivalent to unemployment being above normal of five percent or so.

In the last year of my forecast horizon, 2013, I predict GDP growth of 3.5 percent. If that pace of growth continued year after year (which I am not actually forecasting), how long until we’re back to normal? Actual GDP equal to potential GDP, and unemployment about five percent?

2020. That’s not an eye exam result, it’s the year we’re back to normal if GDP does not accelerate beyond the rate of my 2013 forecast.

My best estimate? GDP growth will accelerate, especially once we work through the excess housing supply. So we should get to normal much sooner than 2020. However, it’s well worth noting that current growth rates are dismal, even for relative optimists like me.

Print This Post Print This Post    Email This Post Email This Post

Discuss this article

no comments yet

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Please answer the following question to confirm that you are a real person: *

Top Business News


Top Natural Resource News


Top Faith News


Copyright © 2018, OregonReport. All Rights Reserved. | Terms of Use - Copyright - Legal Policy | Contact Oregon Report

Stay Tuned...

Stay up to date with the latest political news and commentary from Oregon Business Report through daily email updates:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Prefer another subscription option? Subscribe to our RSS Feed, become a fan on Facebook, or follow us on Twitter.

RSS Twitter Facebook

No Thanks (close this box)