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Economists proven right on Measure 66-67 aftermath

August 27, 2010

Latest state economic forecast and impacts of Measures 66 & 67
By Economist Dr. Eric Fruits,
Econinternational

This is a “told you so” story about Measures 66 & 67 …

In December 2009, Randall Pozdena and I published research forecasting the impacts of Measures 66 and 67 on Oregon employment (a copy of the study is attached).  Our study was based on thorough research of peer-reviewed literature and a quantitative analysis of the taxes and economic growth across the U.S. and over a long period of time.  We concluded that the tax measures would have a significant negative impact on Oregon’s employment picture, as shown in Exhibit 1 of the report.

Needless to say, advocates of the tax measures lambasted our research.

Oregon State University agricultural economist William Jaeger claimed that our research was examined by a “nationally-recognized expert in state public finance” who said our findings were “without merit.”

According to the Oregon Center for Public Policy, Oregon economist Joe Cortright, chair of the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisers, reviewed our study. Cortright concluded that “neither the economic literature nor the data presented by [Pozdena, Fruits and Conerly] support the claim that Measures 66 and 67 will be bad for the Oregon economy.”

Fast forward to today.

The state economist released his latest forecast of the Oregon economy.  The attached figure shows that the state’s employment forecast is virtually identical to the employment forecast that Dr. Pozdena and I projected in our study of the impacts of Measures 66 & 67. Despite the vituperative criticism of our research and ad hominem attacks on our character, it is becoming more and more clear that our forecast was almost spot-on.

  
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Discuss this article

Kiss My Putz August 27, 2010

It might be noted that Cortright is NOT an economist; but rather a principle employee of an organization that provides economic analysis.

Marvin McConoughey August 27, 2010

This is impressive: A forecast that later proves accurate. The problems of taxing the very rich include 1) they can legally take countermeasures, 2) the rich are sources of venture capitalism. 3) businesses tend to locate where their chief executives feel fairly treated.

Bob Clark August 27, 2010

There’s two other points I would make about measures 66 and 67. (1) The majority of the negative impact on jobs in Oregon may not have even been registered yet. I hear a leading commercial real estate developer postulate many Oregon businesses do not have the financial wherewithal at this time to move or expand elsewhere but once the economy does recover, they will then have the wherewithal to move or expand elsewhere. (2) Measures 66 and 67 illustrate how “tax and spend” democrats play one part of the electorate off against another. Today it’s tax folks making more than $250k per year. But tomorrow it will be some other minority group, maybe, those making between $200k and $250k. Each time the target is an isolated minority, but ultimately, the tax hits the majority of all citizens. We need to stand together and protect all of us against the “divide and conquer” Democrat party’s tax politics.

Oregonians flock to Washington to avoid tax bite – Oregon Business News February 28, 2011

[…] For more insight into the numbers, See  Columbian article here.  See also Economist Dr. Eric Fruits     Print This Post     Email This […]

Oregon taxpayers seek Clark County shelter « Oregon Tax News February 28, 2011

[…] – For more insight into the numbers, See Columbian article here. See also Economist Dr. Eric Fruits […]

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