The Oregon Biz Report - Business News from Oregon

Read about accutane journal moderate acne here

State economy slips, hints of double dip recession

July 21, 2010

By Tim Duy,
Oregon Economic Forum

sponsor, KeyBank.

The Oregon recovery experienced headwinds in May.  The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators™ fell 1.4% to 87.9 (1997=100) from a revised April figure of 89.  Significant deterioration in Oregon employment services payrolls, Oregon residential building permits, and the interest rate spread contributed to the decline.

Highlights of the report include:

•    Labor market indicators were largely unchanged during March. Claims have improved dramatically since last year, but still remain elevated, while steady economic growth since last summer has had limited impact on new hiring.  

•    Labor market components were generally weak in May. Initial unemployment claims rose again, mimicking national data by hovering near a level consistent with weak job growth at best.  Moreover, employment services payrolls – largely temporary hiring – dropped to the lowest level since last December, signaling deterioration in hiring demand.

•    Residential building permits (smoothed) fell to the lowest level since December. Not seasonally adjusted, permits declined in May, a month normally associated with a seasonal increase in permits, to a level below that of the same month last year.  The decline is expected given the expiration of tax credits for homebuyers, a policy which merely pulls demand from future months.

•    New orders for nondefense nonaircraft capital goods rose, rebounding from April’s decline.  The upward trend of this indicator typically suggests improving economic conditions and stands out against other, generally softer components of the UO Index.

•    The interest rate spread between 10-Year Treasury Bonds and the Federal Funds dropped dramatically during May as market participants – increasingly concern with the pace of economic growth in the second half of 2010 as well as the European debt crisis – rushed to the safety of government debt.

•    It would be premature to conclude that a “double-dip” recession is imminent on the basis of a single month decline in the UO Index. The decline, however, is consistent with concerns that the pace of recovery would falter in the second half of 2010 after the impetus of inventory correction and fiscal stimulus waned.

  
Print This Post Print This Post    Email This Post Email This Post

Discuss this article

Bob Clark July 21, 2010

It’s kind of also daunting that Intel should be doing very well with record profits and global computer and technology spending should also be doing pretty well yet the impact on Oregon jobs is absent. Washington state’s economy seems to be picking up faster as Boeing continues cranking out product. Oregon’s seems to lack a diverse set of industry, and looks to be waiting for a recovery in housing.

Oregon could better take advantage of housing booms if it allowed more timber harvests on public lands. The global economy is in a long term cycle favoring raw material industries like timber, and Oregon should put some emphasis in rebuilding its timber industry.

I am hopeful domestic housing construction picks up significantly next year. Two to three years now of exceptionally low build should help rebalance new house demand and supply.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Recent Articles

Press Releases



Top Business News

 

Top Women's News

 

Top Natural Resource News

 

Top Faith News

 

Copyright © 2016, OregonReport. All Rights Reserved. | Terms of Use - Copyright - Legal Policy | Contact Oregon Report

Stay Tuned...

Stay up to date with the latest political news and commentary from Oregon Business Report through daily email updates:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Prefer another subscription option? Subscribe to our RSS Feed, become a fan on Facebook, or follow us on Twitter.

RSS Twitter Facebook

No Thanks (close this box)