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Poll: Oregon voter mood swings upwards

October 7, 2009

Oregon Mood Improving; Obama’s Health Care Plan Finds Mixed Reviews
By Moore Information,
October 6, 2009

The mood of Oregon voters is pessimistic but has improved significantly in the past eight months. In February of this year, we reported pessimism at its highest point in six years, but today we find the Oregon electorate on a much more even keel. At the same time, however, Oregonians are not overwhelmed by the Obama health care proposal being debated in Congress right now. Following are the details.

Oregon Voter Mood and the Economy: Trends 2000-2009

Historically, voter “mood” is directly correlated with the state of the economy – in good times, optimism soars, and in bad economic times, we see hopes fade. Our most recent survey shows an electorate seemingly “on the mend” compared to our last measurement in February of this year. Today, 40% of Oregonians say things in the state are generally headed in the right direction, and 48% say things are off on the wrong track. By comparison, in February, fully 61% of Oregonians said things in the state were generally off on the “wrong track,” while only 30% said things were headed in the right direction. Surprisingly though, as bad as the recent recession has been, the 61% “wrong track” measurement earlier this year is still not as high as the 70% we saw in 2003.

The Dow’s recent gains and perceptions of a more stable economic climate in the past several weeks are likely a major contributor to the improved mood here in Oregon, as well as at the national level. An average of recent public polls show the national mood at 39% right direction, 54% wrong track (RealClearPolitics).

Voter “mood” can be an indicator of election outcome. Incumbent officeholders typically fare better when people believe things are headed in the right direction, but are more vulnerable when the majority believes things are off on the wrong track. If pessimism in Oregon continues, this could benefit Republicans in the 2010 election cycle.

Looking at mood by subgroup, Multnomah County voters are optimistic today by a 12-point margin (49% right direction, 37% wrong track), while voters in Clackamas and Washington Counties and the rest of the Willamette Valley have mixed feelings about the direction of the state, and pessimism prevails among the majority of voters residing elsewhere in the state. There is also a gender gap with regard to mood – men are pessimistic, but women are divided, and by age, voters age 18-34 are cautiously optimistic, but pessimism prevails among voters age 35 and older. Predictably, by party we find Republicans widely pessimistic (which is typical of the out of power party), while Democrats are optimistic, and the mood among Independents today is marginally negative.

Oregon Mood: Key Subgroups

Obama Care: Oregonians are Not Totally On Board

Today, Obama’s health care plan meets with mixed reactions from Oregon voters – 42% support the plan, 37% are opposed and 21% are unsure. It is interesting to note that the level of “intensity” in this debate is similar on both sides of the issue – 26% “strongly” support the President’s plan, while 30% “strongly” oppose it. Nationally, recent public data show the national electorate opposing Obama’s current proposal, 44% to 52% (Pollster.com; average sentiment from five recently published national polls).

Obama’s Health Care Plan

“Do you support or oppose President Obama’s health care reform plan?”

Among Oregonians, the President’s health care plan finds its widest margins of support among Democrats (64% support, 16% oppose), but Republicans are opposed by a similar margin (14% support, 69% oppose) and Independents are only marginally supportive today (41% support, 33% oppose). Women of all ages are marginally on board with the President’s plan, and while men age 18-54 share this sentiment, a plurality of older men are opposed to the plan today. Regionally, Multnomah County voters support the plan in majority numbers, but sentiment in Washington and Clackamas Counties and the Willamette Valley is divided, and a plurality of voters elsewhere in the state are opposed.

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ROSIA GREGG October 8, 2009

WE LIVE IN EASTERN OR, CONSERVATIVES,WE HAVE MILIONS OF BOARD FEET OF TIMBER, RIPE, READY TO BE HARVESTED AND TURNED INTO LUMBER, BUT THE FAR LEFT WESTERN ORE TREEHUGGERS, KEEP FIGHTING OUR LOGGING,WHILE THE TREES ROT AND BURN.??? PORTLAND AND EUGENE ARE SANCTUARY CITIES FOR ILLEGALS??? WHILE THOUSANDS OF OEGONIANS GO WITHOUT WORK?? WHO WANTS OBAMA HEALTH CARE?? OHP RACKS WITH DECEIT,FRAUD AND LOW PAYMENTS TO THE DOCTORS, WHHRE DOES THE MONEY GO??BIG OHP CEOs’? WE NEED GOV.KUL.GONE AND A CONSERVATIVE GOVERNOR VOTED IN.WHERE IS ICE??WE NEED ENFORCEMENT,E-VERIFY, AND AN ACTIVE SURGE TO RID OREGON OF ILLEGALS,NOT WELCOME THEM.THINK NOT?? GO LOOK AT DAYTON,SALEM,MCMINNVILLE,NYSSA,VALE,ONTARIO,KLAMATH FALLS,MEDFORD, MOST OREGON CITIES LOOK LIKE OLD MEXICO, SIGNS AND STOREFRONTS IN SPANISH??THIS IS AMERICA, WE AS A STATE ARE A DISGRACE. SEN.WYDEN HAS A REPORT CARD OF ‘F’ FOR HIS STAND FOR ILLEGALS AGAINST AMERICAN WORKERS,OUR HOUSING,FOODSTAMPS,MEDICAL,WELEFARE MONEY,ENERGY PROGRAMS,ARE BEING USED UP BY ILLEGALS,WE NEED ENFORCEMENT, EASTERN OREGON FOREST ARE FULL OF ILLEGAL DRUG GROWERS AND METH LABS, CHK OUT THE JOHN DAY NEWSPAPER OR BAKERS, GO ONLINE..EAST.OREGON HAS RESOURCES TO PUT ALL OF OUR LEGAL AMRICAN WORKERS BACK TO WORK BUT THE WESTSIDE OF OREGON ARE BUNNY HUGGING,TREE HUGGERS,YOU PASS LAWS SO WE CANNOT KILL PREDATORS LIKE COUGARS,WOLVES,BEARS, WE HAVE DECIDED TO REPLANT THEM IN WESTERN OREGON,PORTLAND,EUGENE,CORVALLIS,SPRINGFIELD ETC. WHERE THEY WERE YEARS AGO. WE CANNOT HARVEST OUR FORREST,HOW ABOUT ALL OF YOUR FARMERS STOP HARVESTING YOUR HOPS,VEGS, ETC. YOUR KILLING OFF NATURE..WE ARE NOT MEXICOS WELEFARE SYSTEM HELP PASS LAWS TO DEPORT ILLEGALS,ALL ILLEGALS, WOODBURN IS FULL OF RUSSIAN ILLEGALS. WE VOTE BUT YOUR MASS OF YUPPIEYS OUT NUMBER US, WE NEED TO SPLIT THE STATE.THANKS, FROM A FORMER CONSERVATIVE DEMOCRAT NOW A REPUBLICAN. ROSIA GREGG

Charles Olsen October 8, 2009

The people from about Roseburg south to about Redding, California have for a long period of time wished for a seperate State. Both Oregon and California governments are rotten to the core. Many have called the desired State ” The State of Jefferson” It appears that the People of Portland to Eugene live with a different mind set than the rest of the people of Oregon. The people of the area from Portland to Eugene want constant government hand outs and government control. People from Portland to Eugene seem to have a problem thinking for themselves. I often wonder how in the world can they live their lives sucking up to the politicians and bureaucrats for hand outs and permission to everything they may be allowed to do. This seems very degrading to me, most of us just do nothing because of government, we don’t want to need to beg a bureaucrat to do what a person should be free to do without government bureaucrats with handfulls of paper to fill out, of course in the proper format to satisify their wishes. The Ruling Democratic politicians of Oregon exist for the sole purpose to CONTROL all people of Oregon. Not one single thing has been done to create any real jobs in Oregon in over three decades, I cannot imagine any one in his or her right mind even thinking of starting a manufacturing business in Oregon. City, County, and State governments are all very anti business. Government make work jobs are only temporary. What will support the temporary government jobs in the future? The answer is simple, NOTHING. I see no end to the problems we as a people will face in the future. What we have seen so far in the current down turn of the economy is like a Sunday school picnic when the real problems arrive. I can see nothing to support millions of people of Oregon and the multi millions of people nation wide, even to the point of having food to eat. As Ms. Gregg stated we have in Oregon, ILLEGALS sapping our State. The farmers, fishermen, lumber people are controlled and beat down to the point of saying to hell with it all. The tree huggers of Portland, Eugene and Ashland had best get used to eating the bark of the trees they have been hugging, even though the bark will taste like pitch, a bad taste and quite unpalatable to be sure. Most in State government are Lawyers and don’t have a clue what hell looks like but may soon get a good glimps of what hell may be like. When the bottom falls out it is going to be, Burn baby Burn, government buildings will burn that is the way mobs work. Some politicians are going to be hunted down and drug through the streets. Politicians had best realize police and military will only go so far to control the masses. I do wish you all well, you are going to need all the well wishes you can get. May God save your Souls. Charles Olsen

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