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Foreign Trade Turns Corner, Just Like Domestic Economy

September 14, 2009

By Bill Conerly, Businomics, Conerly Consulting LLC

The data on foreign trade show both imports and exports looking up.


This pattern–a small upturn after a huge decline–is present is lots of current data, including
– Retail sales
– Real consumer spending
– Car sales
– Consumer confidence
– Industrial production
– Housing starts
– Building permits
– New home sales
– Existing home sales
– Purchasing managers index
– Capital goods orders
– Total business sales
– Stock market

None of these has regained its pre-recession peak, so they all resemble the foreign trade chart above.  I always caution against interpreting one month’s data as a new trend, but when all the data are turning up for the last month, then it sure as heck is a new trend.  The recession is over.  Now our goal is to regain the lost ground.  And to figure out how to shift our businesses from recession-mode to recovery mode.

By Bill Conerly, Businomics, Conerly Consulting LLC

  
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