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Four key indicators contradict improving economy

June 15, 2009

By Bill Conerly, Oregon Economist
, Conerly Consulting LLC

The economy is still headed down.  The best monthly look at the economy’s current state involves the four coincident indicators.  These tend to move up and down as the overall economy moves up or down.  Consequently, the folks who determine business cycle beginnings and ends look carefully at these four indicators.  Here’s the picture:

I think that we’re near a turning point, but that’s a forecast, not an analysis of the most recent data.

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Alice June 15, 2009

I believe thinking positive helps people feel better, so why not try it for an improving economy.

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