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Retail Sales: Bouncing Along the Bottom

April 20, 2009

Bill Conerly, Businomics, Conerly Consulting

Today’s headlines sound gloomier than the data–once again.  The Wall Street Journal says, “U.S. Retail Sales Show New Weakness.”  Yahoo Finance says, “Stocks slip as retail sales data disappoint.”  So how bad is the new data?

Looks to me like we’re bouncing along a new bottom.  True, total sales declined last month, but the change was small.  I’m happy having relatively small changes for a few months–sure beats the sharp decline of late last year.  This pattern is consistent with my view that we are in the neighborhood of the bottom for this cycle.  But only time will tell.


Bill Conerly is principal of Conerly Consulting LLC, chief economist of, and was previously Senior Vice President at First Interstate Bank. Bill Conerly writes up-to-date comments on the economy on his blog called “Businomics” and produces a monthly audio magazine available on CD. Conerly is author of “Businomics™: From the Headlines to Your Bottom Line: How to Profit in Any Economic Cycle”, which connects the dots between the economic news and business decisions.

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Dona April 20, 2009

Nice to hear a more positive view.

Dave April 20, 2009

I just cannot see consumers spending any less than they are now. I agree we have hit a bottom, most likely.

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