[5]By NFIB,
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Feb. 25, 2026) – The NFIB Research Center released [6] an industry-specific quarterly Small Business Economic Trends survey highlighting the construction, manufacturing, retail, and services industries. According to the report, the Optimism Index increased from the previous quarter for all reported industries except for construction.
“Small business optimism rose in all reported industries except for construction,” said Holly Wade, Executive Director of NFIB’s Research Center. “While overall optimism has gone up, more owners are reporting supply chain disruptions.”
The survey was conducted in January and the overall Optimism Index [7] in January was 99.3.
Overall Highlights:
- In January, the Optimism Index increased from October for all reported industries except construction. Small business owners in the manufacturing industry were the most optimistic of all industries, with a reading 4.5 points above the overall Index.
- The percent of small business owners in all industries reporting supply chain disruptions impacted their business to some degree rose 2 points from October to 62%. Reports of supply chain disruptions correlated with supply chain exposure, with the highest rates in the wholesale industry (80%) and the lowest in the professional services (32%) and finance (40%) industries.
- Sixty-eight percent of small business owners rated the overall health of their business today as excellent or good (up 5 points from October). Reports were the highest in the professional services industry (79%) and the lowest in wholesale (55%) and agriculture (60%) industries.
Key findings by industry include:
Construction
- In January, the Optimism Index for the construction industry fell 2.5 points from the previous quarter to 103, largely driven by deteriorations in hiring plans, unfilled job openings, and capital expenditure plans. Despite the decline, the Index remains 4.3 points above the industry’s historical average of 98.7 and was 3.7 points above the overall Index. The construction industry was the second most optimistic, following manufacturing.
- A seasonally adjusted net 21% of small businesses in the construction industry plan to hire in the next three months, down 14 points from October. Hiring plans contributed the most to the Index’s quarterly decline. Despite this drop, hiring plans in the construction industry were 5 points higher than for all firms and 7 points higher than the industry’s historical average of a net 14% (seasonally adjusted).
- Forty-three percent (seasonally adjusted) of owners in the construction industry reported unfilled job openings, down 7 points from October but still well above the industry’s historical average of 31% (seasonally adjusted). Unfilled job openings in construction were 12 points higher than the level for all firms.
- Unadjusted, 37% of openings in construction are for skilled workers (down 12 points from October), and 13% are for unskilled workers (down 1 point).
- Fifty-four percent of construction firms reported few or no qualified applicants, down 6 points from October and 10 points higher than reported for all firms.
- Thirty percent of small businesses in the construction industry reported labor quality as their single most important problem (down 19 points from October). Labor quality was the highest in the construction industry and 14 points higher than for all firms.
Manufacturing
- Manufacturing was the most optimistic of the four industries, with an Optimism Index of 103.8, up 3.6 points from October and surpassing its historical average of 101.1. This reading is also 4.5 points above the all-firms Index. Improvements in real sales expectations and inventory plans, along with a surge in job openings to staff growth, primarily drove the manufacturing industry’s increase in optimism.
- The net percent of small businesses in the manufacturing industry expecting real sales to increase rose 18 points from October to a net 24% (seasonally adjusted), a reversal from the July to October period. Sales expectations for manufacturing businesses are above the industry’s historical average of a net 20% (seasonally adjusted). Of all industries, sales expectations were the highest in manufacturing, 8 points above the reading for all firms.
- A net 8% (seasonally adjusted) of owners in the manufacturing industry plan to invest in inventory over the next three to six months, up 16 points from October, marking a surge in inventory investment. Plans to increase inventories were the highest in manufacturing. Additionally, manufacturing firms’ inventory investment plans were 10 points higher than the level for all firms.
Retail
- The Optimism Index for the retail industry rose 0.3 points from October to 95.2. Small business owners in retail remain the least optimistic of all industries, with an Index 4.1 points below the level for all firms. The quarterly change in the retail industry’s Index was the smallest across all industries. Although real sales expectations rose considerably, the gain was offset by declines in capital expenditure plans and unfilled job openings.
- The net percent of small business owners in the retail industry expecting real sales to increase rose 11 points from October to a net 16% (seasonally adjusted). Sales expectations in the retail industry matched the level for all firms and reached its historical average of a net 16% (seasonally adjusted).
- A seasonally adjusted 15% of small business owners in the retail industry plan to make capital expenditures in the next three to six months, down 7 points from October. Historically, this was a weak reading, as it was 9 points below its average of 24% (seasonally adjusted).
Services
- In January, the Optimism Index for the services industry increased 3.7 points from October to 99.3, matching the Index for all firms. All Index components increased from the prior quarter, except for unfilled job openings, which fell by 1 point. The increase in optimism was primarily due to an improvement in real sales expectations.
- The net percent of small businesses in the services industry expecting real sales to increase rose 21 points from October to a net 18% (seasonally adjusted). This was the largest quarterly change across all industries. Sales expectations for firms in the services industry were close to the historical average of a net 19% (seasonally adjusted) and were at the same level as for all firms.
- Expectations for better business conditions in the services industry rose 6 points from October to a net 24% (seasonally adjusted). Historically, this is a strong reading, as it is 19 points above its average of a net 5% (seasonally adjusted).
- In January, earnings trends in the services industry rose 6 points from October to a net negative 20% (seasonally adjusted). Earnings trends in the services industry were only 1 point higher than the reading for all firms, and 1 point lower than the historical average of a net negative 19% (seasonally adjusted).
The full report is available here [6].