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Bills benefiting the lawyer class over the working class only increase economic uncertainty
By Oregon NFIB,
SALEM, Ore., March 11, 2025—Although release today of the latest Small Business Optimism Index [6] by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) showed a fourth consecutive month above the Index’s 51-year average of 98, it also revealed an Uncertainty Index rising four points to 104 – the second highest recorded reading.
“Thankfully, small business optimism is still hovering above the 51-year average after 34 consecutive months of consistently bad readings,” said Anthony Smith, state director of NFIB in Oregon. “But uncertainty is back on the rise, fueled by persistent inflation and a stubbornly challenging labor market. Add to that, concerns surrounding tariffs and a looming automatic massive tax increase for 9 out of 10 small businesses at the end of the year if Congress fails to act on making the 20% Small Business Deduction permanent, and you can see why small businesses are feeling apprehensive.”
NFIB’s monthly Small Business Optimism Index is the gold standard measurement [7] of America’s small business economy. Used by the Federal Reserve, Congressional leaders, administration officials, and state legislatures across the nation, it’s regarded as the bellwether on the health and welfare of the Main Street enterprises that employ half of all workers, generate more net new jobs than large corporations, and gave most of us the first start in our working life. The Optimism Index (aka Small Business Economic Trends report) is a national snapshot of NFIB-member, small-business owners not broken down by state. The typical NFIB member [8] employs between one and nine people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year.
From NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg
“Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street and for many reasons. Those small business owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months dropped and the percent viewing the current period as a good time to expand fell, but remains well above where it was in the fall. Inflation remains a major problem, ranked second behind the top problem, labor quality.”
Highlights from the Latest Optimism Index
- The net percent of owners expecting the economy to improve fell ten points from January to a net 37% (seasonally adjusted).
- Twelve percent (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported that it is a good time to expand their business, down five points from January. This is the largest monthly decrease since April 2020.
- Sixteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, down two points from January and now just below labor quality as the top issue. The last time it was this low was in October 2021.
- Seasonally adjusted, a net 29% plan price hikes in the next three months, up three points from January and the highest reading in 11 months.
Keep up with the latest Oregon small-business news at www.nfib.com [9] or on X at @NFIB_OR
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For 80 years, NFIB has been advocating on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners, both in Washington, D.C., and in all 50 state capitals. NFIB is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven association. Since its founding in 1943, NFIB has been exclusively dedicated to small and independent businesses and remains so today. For more information, please visit nfib.com.
National Federation of Independent Business Oregon
1149 Court Street NE
Salem, OR 97301
503-364-4450
NFIB.com