By Oregon Economist Dr. Eric Fruits
God made economists to make weather forecasters look good.
Hear enough economic forecast speeches, and you’re bound to hear this old joke. And, yes, I’m guilty of using the joke more than once.
Two recent articles put the joke in to perspective.
First the Wall Street Journal editorial board complained that the Fed has history of overly optimistic economic growth forecasts. They note that “Economic forecasting isn’t easy, but it’s striking how consistently the Fed has been wrong in a single direction.”
Remarking on the Fed’s spotty track record at forecasting first quarter growth, the WSJ snarks, “Economists always blame the cold weather, but it is not news that winters are cold.”Read the full article and discuss it »