[5]
By Josh Lehner
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Blog [6]
Just a quick update on new construction and housing activity.
While one hears and reads much about the current, so-called construction boom, it can be helpful to place the recent numbers in perspective. Within the Portland MSA, only one county – Multnomah – is back to pre-Great Recession levels of building activity. The others are about half-way back. It’s really difficult to call the current levels of permits and starts a boom when you examine the numbers. See here [7] for more on new building relative to population growth. Also, stay tuned for more housing analysis in the near future.
[8]Below is a similar chart for each of the state’s other major metropolitan areas. We have discussed the Bend population growth vs housing start issue previously [9]. Like Portland and Bend, the other metropolitan areas are seeing lower levels of new construction in recent years, even if it is picking up a little bit.
[10]The bigger implications here, which the future work will focus on more, is housing affordability. As population growth accelerates — which it is and will continue to do so — and vacancy rates are low — which they are — affordability is lost. In our office’s latest economic and revenue forecast document [11], we added housing affordability as a risk to the outlook (see PDF p. 18.)